Abstract

This study aims to analyze the cost–benefit of demand–supply scenarios on hydropower generation and supply situation in the Marun catchment (Khuzestan province located in Iran) using the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP). For this purpose, demographic data, macroeconomic indicators, and per capita consumption of various energy carriers in both urban and agricultural sectors in 2015 were extracted and calculated for Marun catchment. Then, key assumptions affecting energy consumption including population growth rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and urbanization percentage for 2015–2040 were estimated and the trend of energy demand changes was modeled. Next, four scenarios including (1) Business-As-Usual (BAU), (2) Demand-Side Management (DSM), (3) energy mix and (4) integration scenarios were simulated with LEAP model and net present value (NPV) index calculated for each of them. The results show that final electricity demand in 2040 will be equal to 5094 MWh, while electricity generation capacity is equal to 3.1 million MWh. The results of cost–benefit analysis of different scenarios show that NPV Index of using energy-saving lamps is—$ 251 million compared to BAU scenario and is the best economic alternative to supply the electricity demand of the Marun catchment.

Keywords Electricity demand and generation • LEAP model • Hydropower plant power • Natural gas combined cycle power plant • Cost–benefit analysis • NPV index

 

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